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China 2026: Risk Framework
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Field Observations
Field Observation: Kharg Is Not the Problem
Why targeting Kharg Island misreads how Iran generates leverage—and risks reinforcing control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 1
•
Erika Lafrennie
Field Observation: Decapitation Without Collapse
How targeting leadership instead of governance systems produces the illusion of success without changing outcomes
Mar 25
•
Erika Lafrennie
1
2
Field Observation: Summits as Administrative Checkpoints
The upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will generate the usual debate about leverage and concessions.
Mar 18
•
Erika Lafrennie
2
Field Observation: When Strategic Pressure Operates Through Absence
Why the absence of coercion can be as disorienting as coercion itself
Mar 9
•
Erika Lafrennie
Field Observation: Energy Networks as Strategic Terrain
How energy governance networks shape political alignment in great-power competition
Mar 5
•
Erika Lafrennie
2
Field Observation: Escalation Is Not Regime Collapse
Why military escalation and institutional dissolution operate on different timelines — and why that distinction matters for Iran, the IRGC, and regional…
Feb 28
•
Erika Lafrennie
1
2
Field Observation: Rectification as Readiness
What to watch inside the PLA after overt recruitment signaling
Feb 14
•
Erika Lafrennie
1
Field Observation: Succession Without Peers
What the removal of peer authority inside the PLA signals for succession
Jan 28
•
Erika Lafrennie
1
Field Observation: Alliance Boundaries Under Arctic Pressure
What the Greenland episode revealed about transatlantic coordination under compressed timelines
Jan 22
•
Erika Lafrennie
1
Field Observation: Where the United States Tests Against Chinese Military Technology
Why Venezuela May Matter Less as a Crisis and More as a Test Environment
Jan 7
•
Erika Lafrennie
3
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