China 2026: A Strategic Risk Framework
A Strategic Framework for Understanding Beijing in the Year Ahead
Each year, geopolitical risk firms publish lists of “Top Risks.” Markets read them. Governments glance at them. Few help anyone who actually has to plan.
Xinanigans was built to do the opposite.
This five-part series provides a full analytical architecture for reading China in 2026. Not a list of risks. A framework.
Across five dispatches, we follow the logic that drives Beijing’s behavior:
how China thinks, where pressure accumulates, how misreads form, what strategic moves are most likely, and where true shock potential lies inside the system.
This page collects the public foundations of that framework.
The full 2026 China Risk Framework—a structured PDF brief designed for planning, briefing, and scenario development—is available to subscribers.
1. Cognitive Layer
The 10 Most Dangerous Ideas in Beijing Right Now
China’s strategic behavior begins with belief. This dispatch maps the core ideas shaping elite decision-making and the incentive structures that reinforce them.
2. Structural Layer
Top 10 Fault Lines China Can’t Acknowledge (But You Should Watch Closely)
The system maintains stability through pressure management, not reform. This entry identifies the fractures that matter most in 2026.
3. Analytical Layer
What We Got Wrong About China in 2025
Misreads occur when analysts track events instead of incentives. This dispatch reframes the analytic baselines for 2026.
4. Predictive Layer
Five Strategic Gambits Beijing Will Attempt in 2026 (and Their Hidden Weaknesses)
China enters 2026 with disciplined governance and limited maneuver space. This piece outlines Beijing’s most likely moves—and the vulnerabilities embedded inside each one.
5. Contingency Layer
The 7 Unthinkables: China’s Black Swan Scenarios for 2026
Black swans emerge when a system cannot see the risks it generates. These scenarios reveal where Beijing’s governance model is most brittle.
About the Full Framework (Subscribers Only)
Alongside the five dispatches, subscribers receive the 2026 China Risk Framework, a strategic briefing file that synthesizes the series into a single analytic tool.
It includes:
A one-page overview of each analytic layer
Integrated cognitive, structural, analytical, strategic, and contingency maps
A scenario matrix for tracking risk movement throughout the year
Early-warning indicators across cognitive, structural, operational, and external domains
Analytic scaffolding for planning, tabletop exercises, and briefing routines
This is the closest thing Xinanigans offers to a pocket NSC-style contingency framework for China in 2026.
If you want access to the full briefing file, you can subscribe below.
Why This Series Exists
China’s strategic landscape cannot be understood through headlines or short-term indicators. It must be read through governance logic, incentive structures, and the mechanisms a controlled system uses to absorb pressure.
This series is designed to give analysts, policymakers, and risk professionals a coherent lens for the year ahead.
It is designed to be revisited throughout the year as conditions shift, rather than consumed once and forgotten.
Subscribe to Access the Full Framework
Subscribers receive:
The complete 2026 China Risk Framework PDF
Weekly deep-dive analysis on Tuesdays
China This Week intelligence briefs on Fridays
Foresight tools and scenario guides throughout the year