Every Friday, Xinanigans analyzes China’s most consequential moves across geopolitics, military, economy, and propaganda, revealing Beijing’s evolving strategy and its impact on US national security.
Bottom Line: China intensified strategic convergence this week: consolidating control in Xinjiang, expanding ideological discipline, and launching new frameworks for infrastructure, digital governance, and transnational repression. At the same time, Beijing showcased a leap in hard power with the Fujian carrier’s full-deck launch milestone, signaling that its growing ability to project naval power now parallels its bid to write global rules. Together, these moves underscore China’s intent to reshape both the physical and institutional balance of power.
1. Xi Jinping Leads Historic 70th Anniversary Xinjiang Delegation
Xi Jinping led the Party’s top leadership to Xinjiang for the region’s 70th founding anniversary, meeting military, civilian, religious, and local leaders. He declared Party policy “correct, scientific, and effective,” tying assimilation and security to national rejuvenation.
Why it matters:
A coordinated surge of elite attention frames Xinjiang as a success story, setting conditions for intensified ethnic policy and authoritarian model export.
Implications for US National Security:
Authoritarian Model Export: Tested surveillance tools including biometrics, AI policing, and digital monitoring will be marketed to authoritarian partners, undercutting US democracy promotion.
Narrative Warfare Fortification: Beijing preemptively casts criticism as interference, complicating allied consensus on human rights.
Chinese Vulnerabilities and US Counter-Opportunities:
International Backlash Risk: Xi’s high-profile visit may renew attention to abuses, offering leverage with Muslim-majority states and human rights groups.
Economic Unsustainability: The surveillance model is resource-intensive, limiting scalability and opening space for US security alternatives.
2. Fujian Carrier Achieves Full-Deck Launch Milestone
China’s third carrier conducted publicized tests of its electromagnetic catapult, launching J-15T fighters, J-35 stealth jets, and KJ-600 early warning aircraft. State media hailed “system integration success,” underscoring blue-water ambitions.
Why it matters:
China’s first catapult carrier marks a leap from regional defense to potential global operations. By showcasing diverse deck launches, Beijing signals its intent to field sustained strike groups akin to US forces.
Implications for US National Security:
Maritime Balance Shift: Extends China’s ability to contest sea control beyond the first island chain.
Deterrence Pressure: Expands coercive options against Taiwan and US forward bases.
Alliance Cohesion Test: Aimed at eroding Indo-Pacific partners’ confidence in US naval supremacy.
Chinese Vulnerabilities and US Counter-Opportunities:
Operational Integration Gap: Years of training needed before combat effectiveness.
Logistics Strain: Distant operations demand supply chains where the US retains advantage.
Escalation Risks: High-profile tests invite allied investment in anti-carrier capabilities.
3. Standardized Xi Thought Curriculum Rolled Out Nationwide
The Propaganda and Organization Departments released a unified Xi Thought curriculum, now mandatory across Party, schools, and state institutions.
Why it matters:
The rollout codifies ideological discipline, eliminating alternative policy currents. It reinforces Beijing’s claim of “whole-process people’s democracy,” where enforced unity is framed as democracy.
Implications for US National Security:
Policy Predictability Loss: Less internal debate, more rigid hostility to external pressure.
Intelligence Blind Spots: Suppression of dissent reduces signals into elite decision-making.
Chinese Vulnerabilities and US Counter-Opportunities:
Innovation Stagnation: Conformity may stifle creativity, giving the US an edge in innovation-driven sectors.
Elite Alienation: Compulsory indoctrination risks resentment among professionals, creating openings for influence.
4. Green Development Initiative: Climate and Infrastructure Leadership
At UNGA and GDI forums, Beijing pledged new funding, projects, and 2035 climate targets to anchor China as the convener of Global South green development.
Why it matters:
The GDI is being institutionalized as the hub for climate and infrastructure governance, embedding Chinese standards into energy and supply chains. Unlike earlier BRI green branding, this represents an institutional shift toward global rule-setting.
Implications for US National Security:
Dependency Creation: Chinese financing creates leverageable dependencies in crises.
Standards Dominance: Embeds technical norms that disadvantage US firms and aid espionage.
Coalition Fragmentation: Draws partners toward Beijing-led institutions over Western ones.
Chinese Vulnerabilities and US Counter-Opportunities:
Debt Sustainability Crisis: Expansive commitments strain China’s finances and partners’ solvency.
Performance Gaps: Chinese tech often lags in efficiency, opening space for US competition on quality.
5. AI+ International Cooperation Initiative: Digital Rulemaking
Premier Li Qiang launched the AI+ initiative at UNGA, pledging funds for AI education, digital infrastructure, and rulemaking partnerships.
Why it matters:
AI+ is the digital counterpart to GDI, framing China as a steward of AI governance and setting rules that extend beyond trade into security and identity management.
Implications for US National Security:
Algorithmic Governance Control: Embeds authoritarian norms in digital ecosystems, raising barriers for US firms.
Data Sovereignty Manipulation: Enables Chinese access to global data flows while curbing US intelligence reach.
Tech Ecosystem Bifurcation: Forces countries to choose between incompatible standards.
PLA Dual-Use Leverage: Standard-setting creates pathways for military AI applications.
Chinese Vulnerabilities and US Counter-Opportunities:
Technical Credibility Gap: China lags in foundational models, exposing overpromises.
Privacy Values Contradiction: Beijing’s surveillance ethos clashes with global demand for privacy, opening lanes for US-aligned frameworks.
IW Spotlight
China’s gray zone tactics often hide in plain sight. Each week, I will feature one that deserves a closer look.
Extraterritorial Censorship in Bangkok
After opening an art exhibition in Bangkok, a Myanmar-born curator fled abroad when Thai police, acting on Chinese embassy requests, sought his arrest. Organizers erased Hong Kong, Tibetan, and Uyghur artists from displays at Beijing’s demand.
Why it matters:
This case illustrates Beijing’s extraterritorial censorship strategy, i.e., blending diplomatic pressure, local enforcement, and intimidation to enforce red lines abroad. It shows how China exports its domestic information controls into foreign civil spaces.
Implications for US National Security:
Alliance Sovereignty Erosion: Partners may comply with Chinese demands at the expense of US-aligned principles.
Transnational Repression Expansion: Threatens US citizens, assets, and cultural exchanges.
Chinese Vulnerabilities and US Counter-Opportunities:
Overreach Backlash: Heavy-handed tactics can generate diplomatic costs and publicity.
Civil Society Mobilization: Visible repression can galvanize networks resistant to Chinese influence.
Strategic Outlook
China is simultaneously tightening internal discipline and expanding external reach. The Fujian milestone underscores naval ambitions to rival US dominance, while GDI and AI+ institutionalize dependencies in infrastructure and digital governance. Xinjiang’s showcase and Xi Thought training entrench authoritarian control at home.
The strategy converges around three imperatives: secure obedience, project hard power, and lock in external dependencies. By fusing military, technological, and ideological levers, Beijing reduces space for democratic alternatives and constrains US leadership. Washington and allies must now confront a China advancing in both capability and legitimacy domains, a combination designed to narrow US freedom of action for decades.