China This Week: Strategic Moves and Messaging
July 11-17, 2025
Every Friday, Xinanigans analyzes China’s most consequential moves across geopolitics, military, economy, and propaganda, revealing Beijing’s evolving strategy and its impact on US national security.
1. People’s Liberation Army Conducts Sustained Drills Parallel to Taiwan’s Han Kuang Exercises
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) executed intense, multi-domain exercises around Taiwan from July 11–17, directly mirroring Taiwan’s Han Kuang defensive war games. PLA naval aviation emphasized nighttime strike packages and cross-strait operations, with official communiqués underscoring operational proximity to Taiwan.
Why it matters:
These exercises demonstrate not just deterrence but real-time shadowing capability, e.g., projecting readiness to contest Taiwan’s defense mobilization while probing allied response thresholds. The PLA’s concurrent maneuvering indicates deliberate shaping of Taiwan’s cognitive domain and a test of the US regional presence.
Implications for US National Security:
Operational Disruption: PLA proximity complicates Taiwan’s exercise planning and forces recalibration of US and allied training windows and alert protocols.
Strategic Signaling: If sustained, this operational tempo enables PLA normalization of coercive presence near Taiwan, shrinking strategic warning time.
Narrative Warfare Risk: Daily PLA media coverage promotes the inevitability of unification, eroding public confidence in Taiwan’s defense resilience and framing reunification as a matter of historical correction rather than strategic choice.
2. China Expands Military Engagement in the Balkans with Peacekeeper 2025 Drills
Beijing announced “Peacekeeper 2025,” a bilateral exercise with Serbia involving joint special forces training in July, marking a shift from regional investment to active politico-military cooperation in Southeastern Europe.
Why it matters:
This military diplomacy effort indicates Beijing’s intent to test NATO’s periphery for seams, exploiting geostrategic gaps where Russian influence has traditionally held sway.
Implications for US National Security:
Intelligence Exposure: PLA interaction with Balkan security forces provides insight into NATO-adjacent military standards and creates counterintelligence vulnerabilities for the West.
Strategic Encroachment: Sustained engagement opens the door to long-term Chinese military presence in Europe, pressuring transatlantic defense coherence.
Narrative Positioning: Beijing may exploit Balkan cooperation to present itself as a stabilizing security partner in NATO’s shadow, complicating US strategic messaging and opening space for PLA-affiliated influence in Europe.
Logistical Familiarization: PLA deployments in Europe allow rehearsal of long-distance mobility and sustainment operations, expanding China’s extra-theater military options.
3. China Reports Robust Q2 Growth Despite External Pressures
China posted 5.2% GDP growth for Q2 2025, highlighting strong industrial output and diversification away from US-linked trade. Beijing credited policy support and domestic demand as buffers against Western decoupling efforts.
Why it matters:
The resilience underscores Beijing’s capacity to endure prolonged US trade pressure, signaling reduced susceptibility to economic coercion and increased confidence in global strategic engagement.
Implications for US National Security:
Defense Funding Resilience: Sustained growth enables uninterrupted investment in capabilities that challenge US military advantage, including AI, space, and strategic nuclear modernization.
Sanctions Erosion Risk: Beijing’s adaptation weakens the strategic utility of US trade tools, forcing Washington to reassess economic coercion as a lever of influence.
Global Influence Threat: China’s narrative of economic strength may resonate with swing states and Global South partners, undercutting US credibility in shaping international norms and coalitions.
4. Beijing Ramps Up Global Propaganda Infrastructure
As the US reduces international broadcasting funding, China has expanded its global media footprint, adding 80 frequencies, introducing new language services, and increasing propaganda budgets beyond $1B annually. Initiatives include cultural outreach in North Korea and convergence with Russian disinformation narratives.
Why it matters:
Beijing is capitalizing on Western narrative retrenchment to dominate information ecosystems, particularly in contested or under-governed media environments.
Implications for US National Security:
Narrative Supremacy Campaigns: Enhanced state media capabilities allow Beijing to drive messaging on sensitive issues (e.g., Taiwan, Xinjiang) with less resistance.
Soft Power Expansion: In regions where Western media withdraws Chinese messaging becomes the default, shaping elite and popular perception toward authoritarian legitimacy.
Strategic Disinformation Risk: Echoing Russian narratives allows coordinated erosion of democratic norms and complicates US messaging in strategic theaters.
5. PRC Diplomacy on Ukraine Reveals Covert Support for Russia
Foreign Minister Wang Yi privately conveyed to EU counterparts that Beijing does not wish for Russia to lose in Ukraine, contrasting with China’s official position of neutrality. Simultaneously, Chinese media continue amplifying Kremlin-aligned narratives while publicly denying support.
Why it matters:
Beijing’s dual-track diplomacy seeks to prolong Western distraction through Ukraine while avoiding overt alignment that might trigger sanctions or fracture relations with Europe.
Implications for US National Security:
Coalition Complication: China’s posture hinders US efforts to unify allied pressure on Russia, preserving space for Beijing’s alignment with Moscow.
Strategic Template Development: If successful, this model of ambiguous backing could be applied to future gray-zone crises (e.g., Taiwan, South China Sea).
Perceptual Risk: Beijing’s echoing of Russian narratives may normalize authoritarian framing of international crises, eroding global alignment with US positions and constraining support for future sanctions or joint responses.
Strategic Outlook
Across military, economic, diplomatic, and cognitive domains, Beijing is executing a coordinated campaign of normalized pressure and shaping, grounded in the Chinese Communist Party’s doctrine of Comprehensive National Power (综合国力). Taiwan remains the primary focus, but this week’s moves, including military diplomacy in the Balkans and global information infrastructure expansion, reflect operational application of the Three Warfares strategy (public opinion, psychological, and legal warfare).
The People’s Liberation Army’s exercises, diplomatic maneuvering around Ukraine, and strategic messaging expansion are consistent with China’s evolving Active Defense posture, which emphasizes proactive shaping below the threshold of open conflict. Economic resilience also strengthens Military-Civil Fusion, ensuring sustained strategic investments despite foreign pressure.
Taken together, these developments represent a shift from reactive deterrence to initiative-driven displacement, a model that systematically erodes US influence while constructing parallel mechanisms of power and legitimacy aligned with the CCP’s vision of national rejuvenation and a multipolar global order.