China This Week: Strategic Moves and Messaging
July 4-10, 2025
Every Friday, Xinanigans analyzes China’s most consequential moves across geopolitics, military, economy, and propaganda, revealing Beijing’s evolving strategy and its impact on US national security.
1. Beijing Targets Taiwan Defense Industrial Base with Strategic Export Controls
China’s Ministry of Commerce, in coordination with the Central Taiwan Work Office, placed eight Taiwan-based defense contractors, including AIDC, CSBC, and Jingwei Aerospace, on its controlled export blacklist, restricting access to dual-use components.
Why it matters:
This marks Beijing’s sharpest escalation in economic statecraft targeting Taiwan’s indigenous defense production, timed to coincide with the Han Kuang exercises. The measure signals a shift toward unrestricted warfare principles, where economic tools serve military deterrence objectives.
Implications for US National Security:
Operational Impact: Limited immediate disruption due to Taiwan’s efforts to de-Sinicize its supply chain, but vulnerabilities in submarine and drone programs may be exposed over time.
Strategic Consequences: If sustained and expanded, this campaign could evolve into a strategic deterrence posture via economic chokepoints, laying groundwork for selective blockade scenarios.
Narrative Risk: Demonstrates Beijing’s ability to punish separatist systems without direct military conflict, potentially undermining US messaging around peaceful status quo support.
2. Commemorative Propaganda Campaign Ties Taiwan Identity to Anti-Japanese Resistance
At the July 7 ceremony at the Marco Polo Bridge Museum, Politburo Standing Committee member Cai Qi led speeches framing Taiwan’s historical resistance to Japanese colonial rule as evidence of shared national lineage. Exhibits promoted “opposing Taiwan independence” as part of China's anti-fascist legacy.
Why it matters:
This year’s War of Resistance commemoration reflects a notable shift in narrative warfare, e.g., merging anti-Japanese nationalism with anti-separatist messaging, to build ideological legitimacy for potential future unification actions.
Implications for US National Security:
Cognitive Domain Shaping: Strengthens internal public support and appeals to "compatriots in Taiwan" through historical reinterpretation, aligning with PLA information domain shaping doctrine.
Strategic Justification: Establishes a moral-legal case for “reunification as historical correction,” softening international resistance by framing future military action as post-colonial justice.
Soft Power Risk: Erodes Japan-Taiwan solidarity narratives and could stoke regional tension by reframing Japan as a latent colonial threat to Chinese sovereignty.
3. China Coast Guard Patrols Reinforce Maritime Administrative Control Near Diaoyu Islands
On July 3, China Coast Guard vessel 1306 led a patrol formation in the territorial waters around the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku to Japan), emphasizing routine law enforcement in China’s jurisdictional waters as part of “rights protection” under the Ministry of Natural Resources.
Why it matters:
Beijing continues using quasi-military maritime forces to assert maritime administrative control and test response thresholds under the banner of peaceful development.
Implications for US National Security:
Operational Testing: Tracks response latency and posture shifts by Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force and US surveillance patterns.
Strategic Accretion: Sustained presence gradually normalizes sovereignty claims, implementing the “salami-slicing” strategy articulated in PLA strategic texts.
Regional Repercussions: Reinforces Chinese perception that persistent presence operations (PPOs) can erode US-Japan alliance credibility over time.
4. Rocket Launch Over Taiwan ADIZ Signals Normalization of Strategic Space Operations
China launched a satellite from Xichang on July 3, with trajectory passing through Taiwan’s ADIZ toward the Western Pacific. The PLA Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) coordinated the launch, reportedly notifying Taiwan in advance.
Why it matters:
The launch pattern reflects growing PLA comfort with normalized military space operations, potentially serving both civil and military dual-use objectives under the rubric of military-civil fusion.
Implications for US National Security:
Tactical Intelligence Collection: Enables testing of adversary ISR response timing and signal signature mapping under strategic support conditions.
Force Posture Disruption: If such launches become frequent, US INDOPACOM and Guam-based missile defense assets will face increased warning-to-reaction complexity, potentially degrading deterrent readiness.
Doctrinal Evolution: Reflects integration of space operations into joint combat system-of-systems planning, per Lectures on the Science of Space Operations.
Strategic Outlook
Across multiple domains - economic, narrative, maritime, and space - Beijing executed a coordinated campaign of pressure and normalization targeting Taiwan, Japan, and US alliance cohesion. These moves form part of a long-term strategy of incremental sovereignty assertion under the banner of peaceful development and national rejuvenation.